Rookie Punter

Strike rate falls

My trial of an over / under system is over. The strike rate of 58% is below what I was achieving with my own, far more basic system. 11 out of 19 isn't great. Yesterday's games looked 'sure fire'. Two were in the Bundesleague while two were in the Dutch first division. I managed to get one right from each country, but as I'd picked doubles it meant no returns for me yesterday.

So I will bid a farewell to this particular system and try and find another over / under system, as it's a market I like.

Haye inside 3

I've never bet on boxing, but given all the hype that surrounded the Haye - Harrison fight I just had to take a punt. I was convinced that Haye would win inside three rounds.

He did and I turned my £2.68 into £8.31.

Thankfully I don't have Sky Sports so wasn't tempted to invest £15 in the pay per view. Facebook was littered with friends demanding a refund from SKY - good luck with that!

5 out of 8

Five of my over 2.5 goal bets came off yesterday. In two of the games I missed out by just the single goal. I was some way off with the West Ham and Blackpool game which finished 0-0.

West Ham v Blackpool (LOST)

Burnely v Watford (WON)

Palace v Coventry (LOST)

Portsmouth v Doncaster (WON)

Scunthorpe v Cardiff (WON)

Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock (LOST)

FC Koln v Monchengladbach (WON)

Kaiserslautern v Stuttgart (WON)

But while 5 out of 8 seems not too bad it resulted in a profit of just 33 pence. Which is quite a meagre return for my £4.35 total stake. I think a bigger stake on a single game or maybe two games might be a better strategy.

So far then the system I'm working to has produced 9 winners from 15 which equates to a 60% strike rate. Not bad but still not delivering the results it promises.

Try, try again

OK I tried my over under goals system during the weekend and had 4 winners out of 7, not bad, but still not enough to breakeven. I've picked 8 games today using the same system. My picks for over 2.5 goals are:

1. West Ham v Blackpool
2. Burnely v Watford
3. Palace v Coventry
4. Portsmouth v Doncaster
5. Scunthorpe v Cardiff
6. Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock
7. FC Koln v Monchengladbach
8. Kaiserslautern v Stuttgart

I'll be satisifed with 6 out of 8!

For a change I have stuck to my guns and placed all the bets as singles.

Gutted

Hmmm - this site is indeed called the 'rookie punter' for a reason. In my two previous posts I listed 6 bets, 3 of which were doubles, meaning I predicted 9 different games in the over/under goal market. How did I fair?

In a word..... badly.

In more than one word - really, really badly.

Firstly my two under 2.5 goal bets failed, which re-inforced why I should avoid them. Never again. But then Arsenal, Rangers and even the mighty Forfar let me down. Out of the seven completed results so far today I have managed to get just one right and that was thanks to a last minute goal for Kaiserslauten to make it 3-0.

So to confirm 1 right out of 7. The one that is right is part of a double, so I now need the Schalke game to finish with at least 3 goals. It kicks of at 5.30pm.

The final game is also part of a double, so even if the Manchester United and Tottenham game produces a veritible goal-fest, it will mean nothing to me, thanks to Arsenal's single goal victory.

I hang my pittiful gambling head in shame.

Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 goal bets

I should really stay clear of the double or triple bets, but I can't help myself! But my main bets today will be singles, all over total goals.

I'm backing the following -

1. Leicester v Preston - Over 2.5 @ 1.80 (staked £1.97 to produce profit of £1.58)
2. Forfar v Livingston - Over 2.5 @ 1.65 (staked £1.54 to produce profit of £1.00)
3. Rangers v Inverness - Over 3.5 @ 2.37 (staked £2.18 to produce profit of £3.00)

The odds really do increase when you take the over 3.5 market, even in a game involving free scoring Rangers.

So 3 singles and 3 double bets. More than enough for today!

Triple Double Over Under

So after much analysis, I've picked three doubles in the over/under 2.5 goal markets today. 2 of the games are over 2.5 with the other being under 2.5. I'm not so keen on the under 2.5 market but it appears to offer slightly better odds due to primarily to the fact that they aren't as popular as the over 2.5 market.

 

 

 

 
 

More over 2.5 success - Germany & Holland

My weekend gambling was thrown into a spin by the loss of my internet connection last night. But thankfully my new friend 'Nelson' from Bangalore has come to my rescue and I now have internet access.

I placed two over 2.5 goal bets last night. The first was a single in the game between Bayern Munich and Freiburg. I knew I'd won that bet as I was watching it on TV. Bayern won 4-2 with 5 of the goals coming in the second half. I've got to say I'm really enjoying watching the Bundesleague on ESPN. So I made a whopping £1 profit on this game.

My second bet was a double featuring two games in the Dutch second division, or Jupiler League as it is known. Den Bosch beat Sparta Rotterdam 3-1, while the second part of the double came off thanks to a last minute winner for Apelldorn against Maastricht. (2-1). Out of all 7 games in the Jupiler league only 1 finished with less than 2.5 goals.

I turned £2.47 into £4.52.  Must get on and get the rest of my weekend bets on before my internet goes down again.

Leeds v Cardiff Over 2.5 & 3.5

The stats seemed to back it. 87% of Leeds home games finished at over 2.5 goals while 67% of Cardiff's away games finished at over the 2.5 goal margin. I selectively ignored the fact that these games have typically been low scoring affairs which usually ended in a draw or narrow, single goal victory.

I trusted the stats, but I also had a hunch, which I backed at the start of the game and also at half time. Here are the bets.

 

Initially I placed a £1.50 bet at 1.80 that the game would finish with at least 3 goals in it. I then noticed the odds for at least 4 goals were quite decent at 3.00, so I placed another 50 pence bet on that. As I looked at the Cardiff line up, and thanks to some stats from Sky, coupled with my aforementioned hunch I decided to place another £2 on the over 2.5 goal market.

At half-time the score was 1-0 Cardiff, but they had missed a host of chances. The odds had lengthened to 2.10, so I decided once again to back that Cardiff would come good in the second half, so placed another £1.25 bet. If I had failed my betting account would have been down to just over £1!

£5.25 is the largest total I've placed on one game and in hindsight it was silly to risk such a large percentage of my betting bank. For some reason I just knew it was going to come off. And thankfully it did.

Goals in the 51st, 56th and 61st minute meant that all four of my best game off with half an hour to spare. So give or take a few pence (7 to be exact) I doubled my money. A good feeling.

I'm thinking of betting exclusively on the over/under goal market for a while!

Over 2.5 Double

Bayern Leverkusen v Mainz and PSV v Feyenord will both finish with more than 2.5 goals. So confident am I that I have placed a £1 double to that affect.

75% of Leverkusen home games have finished at over 2.5 goals while 67% of Mainz away games have finished with over 2.5 goals. That's 142%, which is 22% over the target level.

In the other game 75% of PSV's home matches have ended with over 2.5 goals while 40% of Feyenord's away games have ended with over 2.5 goals. So at 115% combined it isn't as strong as it should be. However if you take all games and ignore the 'home' and 'away' analysis, 80% of all PSV's games and 75% of all Feyenord games have finished with over 2.5 goals. That's 155% combined. Well over the 120 target.